Auour Insights – Page 7

Apr

Oil Supply and Demand

April 3, 2022Energy, Inflation

Inflation is always caused by an imbalance between supply and demand. And that imbalance is almost always due to the actions of government bodies. (Well, we think it’s almost always, but we are not certain.) The oil market is a great example. A tight supply situation was exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Prior to...

Mar

Geopolitics and Markets

March 13, 2022Geopolitics

Geopolitical events, especially wars, bring incredible destruction to those directly involved, and unfortunately, the impact will be felt for many years or decades. For global investment markets, though, the empirical evidence suggests that the impact may be short-lived. The investment bank, Mizuho, has published a look back at the larger military events since WWII with...

Feb

Inflation and Energy Prices

February 18, 2022Energy, Inflation

Inflation is on everyone’s mind and energy pricing has been a significant contributor. We have been discussing our concern that inflation has taken on a more structural ‘feel’ versus being transitory from the pandemic re-opening process. Supporting this argument is the impact from an aggressive move to renewable energy as demonstrated by Germany. The graphic...

A Monthly View into (Au)our Thinking

Newsletters

November 29, 2018

Pigs Get Fat. Hogs Get Slaughtered.

October was quite a month for world markets, with many hoping November would be different. Though investors left the trough quickly for the second time this year, October’s losses felt different than February’s. February’s seemed merely ‘technical.’ October’s seemed more fundamental. The immediate context for February’s market losses were 13 months of positive returns, an...

Joseph HoslerInsights0

October 11, 2018

Buffeting the Disconnect

“The economic problem is that the material fruits of the United States’ engagement with China (and the post-1980 globalization more generally) have been very unevenly distributed…” —Arthur Kroeber, Gavekal The Quarter in Review It was not a bad quarter! U.S. equity markets were very strong across all styles and sizes. We moved past...

Joseph HoslerInsights0

August 20, 2018

Often Wrong, Never in Doubt: The Siren Song of Alternatives

Danny Deutsch’s motto and the title of his book, Often Wrong, Never in Doubt, are about the power of confidence and moving forward even when it results in as many misses as hits. It worked for him. It doesn’t work in investing, which relies on empirical evidence, not hope. However, we find the motto does...

Joseph HoslerInsights0

June 22, 2018

Value is the Product

“It takes a long time to become young.” – Pablo Picasso The team at Auour has been enjoying reading Value as a Service, by Rob Bernshteyn, the CEO of Coupa, a rapidly growing software company. Its premise is that companies need to move from selling products to selling value, and although the book focuses on the technology industry,...

Joseph HoslerInsights0

May 24, 2018

Emerging Problems

Emerging Problems “I think we can’t learn clear lessons from history. What we can learn is to watch out for dangerous possibilities.” – Margaret MacMillan At Auour, we analyze many independent factors to assess greed and fear and the inherent risk in the global markets. We believe the tools we have honed give us a...

Joseph HoslerInsights0

March 29, 2018

Implications of a Bursting Bond Bubble

Some may think of us as bubble detectors. We choose to see ourselves, instead, as risk managers. They might be different sides of the same coin: We look across the global markets to gauge to what degree they are being moved by greed or fear, with the aim of removing client assets from the market...

Joseph HoslerInsights0

1 … 5 6 7 8 9 … 14