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Auour Insights

Monthly Thoughts from the Auour Investment Team
Inflation is always caused by an imbalance between supply and demand. And that imbalance is almost always due to the actions of government bodies. (Well, we think it’s almost always, but we are not certain.) The oil market is a great example. A tight supply situation was exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Prior to...
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Geopolitical events, especially wars, bring incredible destruction to those directly involved, and unfortunately, the impact will be felt for many years or decades. For global investment markets, though, the empirical evidence suggests that the impact may be short-lived. The investment bank, Mizuho, has published a look back at the larger military events since WWII with...
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Inflation is on everyone’s mind and energy pricing has been a significant contributor. We have been discussing our concern that inflation has taken on a more structural ‘feel’ versus being transitory from the pandemic re-opening process. Supporting this argument is the impact from an aggressive move to renewable energy as demonstrated by Germany. The graphic...
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A Monthly View into (Au)our Thinking

Newsletters

Waiting for a Market Correction Can Be Difficult

We are strong believers in Peter Lynch’s quote, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves.” Because fearmongering market pundits profess that a correction is always near, we, therefore, continue to rely on Lynch’s statement. There is no doubt that...
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Weiwai(ting) for the Bubble to Pop

We are ones to look both ways even when crossing a one-way street.  It is ingrained in us to watch for the unexpected. We’re believers in the saying, “It’s the punch you do not see that knocks you out.” Although we stand in a near fully invested stance at the time of this writing, we...
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Confirming Valuation Risk

“Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s preexisting beliefs or hypotheses while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities.” – Wikipedia The S&P 500 index, a proxy for the US equity market, has risen 6% in the first ten weeks of 2017 and...
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Exploiting Ignored Opportunity

One who deceives will always find those who allow themselves to be deceived.   – Niccolo Machiavelli With the heightened focus on world politics, it comes as no surprise that The Prince by Niccolo Machiavelli is seeing a material increase in book sales.  We have spent some time reviewing his writings and the centuries of debate...
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All I want for Christmas is a Bull Market

We founded Auour Investments in early 2013 and spent the spring and summer building the Auour Regime Model and constructing the investment processes underlying our strategies.  In the fall of 2013, we launched the first of the Instinct family of dynamic core strategies: Global Fixed Income in October and Global Equity in December.  The growth...
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The Unraveling of Experiments

For the past 16 years, the world’s population has been living in a test tube.  Various experiments have been run on us.  Though they were pitched as advancements and were instituted with the best of intentions, the experiments proved themselves to be scientific procedures undertaken to…  make a discovery that a common currency shared between...
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