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Auour Insights

Monthly Thoughts from the Auour Investment Team
Inflation is always caused by an imbalance between supply and demand. And that imbalance is almost always due to the actions of government bodies. (Well, we think it’s almost always, but we are not certain.) The oil market is a great example. A tight supply situation was exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Prior to...
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Geopolitical events, especially wars, bring incredible destruction to those directly involved, and unfortunately, the impact will be felt for many years or decades. For global investment markets, though, the empirical evidence suggests that the impact may be short-lived. The investment bank, Mizuho, has published a look back at the larger military events since WWII with...
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Inflation is on everyone’s mind and energy pricing has been a significant contributor. We have been discussing our concern that inflation has taken on a more structural ‘feel’ versus being transitory from the pandemic re-opening process. Supporting this argument is the impact from an aggressive move to renewable energy as demonstrated by Germany. The graphic...
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A Monthly View into (Au)our Thinking


Investment Timing is Everything

The lesson this month is that investment timing is important.  Not just a little, but a lot.  But let’s first start with an analogy. This past week a Toyota Tundra pickup barreled into our office space during work hours, laying waste to all contents.  Thankfully, no employees were in the office at the time as...
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Absorbing Shocks

Increased volatility and lower market prices have led commentators to wonder if this is a correction, the start of a major bear market, or just a bear (cub) market.  However, with U.S. equity markets down in excess of 15% over a very short timeframe, discussing the names that characterize this period is only helpful for...
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Owning Passive ETF’s Doesn’t Make You Passive

Within the investment industry, there is an ongoing debate on passive versus active investing.  Vanguard has been one of the more vocal participants at evaluating active managers and the consequences of stock-based investment strategies.  Our own research into the matter confirms Vanguard’s hypothesis.  Most managers that claim themselves to be active are not consistently adding...
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Justified Concerns

Over the course of this year, concerns within global financial markets have been forming.  Our past few newsletters have discussed the events resulting in us being conservative throughout the summer.  Those concerns are not receding at this point, even as the equity markets have recovered.  Therefore, we maintain a defensive position, looking for our concerns...
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In the words of Ron Burgandy “Boy, that escalated quickly.”

“This is not a crisis, its turbulence.”  – Fauzi Ichsan, Head of the Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corp The time between our last newsletter and today feels like an eternity, yet is only 30 days.  In that time, we have witnessed a dramatic increase in market volatility (a swift fall followed by a uneven rebuild in...
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Greece Who?

China recently elected to devalue their currency causing volatility in most global markets. One benefit of this event was that it removed Greece from the headlines. Although our belief was that too much attention was being placed on Greece and its implications for the European Union, it was welcome to see it move to a...
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