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Auour Insights

Monthly Thoughts from the Auour Investment Team

Amplification

Over the long term, measured in years, the investment markets mimic the overall economy. We have seen many periods when the two diverged for a short time, sometimes significantly. And, admittedly, the word short is ambiguous. It could mean weeks, months, or, in some contexts, years. The greater a shift in the economy, the longer...
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Arrogance of the Modern

“The essence of intelligence is the ability to predict. To plan ahead, we simulate the world. The optimal action taken minimizes the predicted cost.” -Yann LeCun, artificial intelligence pioneer Earlier this month, Berkshire Hathaway held its annual meeting virtually. Warren Buffett’s statements were as poignant as ever. Most interesting to us were his repeated, “I...
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1st Quarter 2020 Commentary

“Let everything happen to you: beauty and terror. Just keep going. No feeling is final.”  — Rainer Maria Rilke The Quarter in Review That was not fun. We discussed in our prior quarterly commentary that we thought the party had gone on a bit too long and those remaining were likely to have a bad...
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Was that a pothole or the start of rough roads ahead?

This is the question we are all asking ourselves as the Federal Reserve throws money at Wall Street and the federal government throws money at Main Street. The market’s rise this past week has many hoping it’s a sign that recovery is imminent, and we’ll be getting back to normal soon. A look at the...
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A Tug of War with No Clear Winner

“By suppressing volatility, central banks created a system unable to deal with bad news. Or to put it another way, leverage was built up on the premise that nothing bad happens.” — Andrew Lapthorne Given their swift plunge, the markets appear to many to be out of control, which increases the concern of investors. We...
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February Market Update

What is the headline risk? It is somewhat obvious, but the move of COVID-19 outside of China has shown that it has a higher probability of being a pandemic than it did before. The research we have reviewed shows that it is 20 times worse than the flu and can be transmitted much easier (not...
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