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Auour Insights

Monthly Thoughts from the Auour Investment Team
Inflation is always caused by an imbalance between supply and demand. And that imbalance is almost always due to the actions of government bodies. (Well, we think it’s almost always, but we are not certain.) The oil market is a great example. A tight supply situation was exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Prior to...
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Geopolitical events, especially wars, bring incredible destruction to those directly involved, and unfortunately, the impact will be felt for many years or decades. For global investment markets, though, the empirical evidence suggests that the impact may be short-lived. The investment bank, Mizuho, has published a look back at the larger military events since WWII with...
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Inflation is on everyone’s mind and energy pricing has been a significant contributor. We have been discussing our concern that inflation has taken on a more structural ‘feel’ versus being transitory from the pandemic re-opening process. Supporting this argument is the impact from an aggressive move to renewable energy as demonstrated by Germany. The graphic...
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A Monthly View into (Au)our Thinking

Newsletters

Paper Towns

We recently watched a TED talk by fiction author John Green. He opened his talk by discussing Agloe, a made-up town in New York that he used in his book Paper Towns. Agloe was created by the cartographers who made Esso maps in the 1930s as a means of detecting future plagiarism. If Agloe found...
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An Unstable Equilibrium

We are keeping with our summer series of more charts and fewer words. Most of this newsletter will be discussing interest rates, inflation and why many fear the eventual monetary stimulus unwind. The chart above attempts to rebuild a history of U.S. interest rates over the span of the country’s independence. Two items stick out...
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Insouciance

Insouciance If you follow us on LinkedIn, you will notice our desire to improve our vocabulary through the launch of the Auour Word of the Day (AWOTD). Within this note, you will see demonstrations of our fresh learnings. As with our last note, however, we are going to keep text to a minimum and not...
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High Speculation

Summer has officially begun. Humidity is rising on the East Coast. The Pacific Northwest is hitting temps we have never seen before. Sunburns are fading into tans. With summer hitting its stride, then, we will keep this note short… We love what Mark Twain said about speculation: “There are two times in a man’s life...
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Breaking Windows

“Everyone wants to live at the expense of the state. They forget that the state wants to live at the expense of everyone.” —Frédéric Bastiat Not a day goes by without an article discussing inflation. And since that is the topic of this article, today will not be the exception. Good inflation, bad inflation, deflation,...
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Living on a Thin Line

In the early 1980’s, Dave Davies, of the English rock band the Kinks, wrote the song, “Living on a Thin Line.” He was writing about England as the last century waned, but it resonates today with our current economic situation. Economic life sits on a changing and unstable ground at this moment. At Auour, our...
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