Auour Insights – Page 5

Apr

Oil Supply and Demand

April 3, 2022Energy, Inflation

Inflation is always caused by an imbalance between supply and demand. And that imbalance is almost always due to the actions of government bodies. (Well, we think it’s almost always, but we are not certain.) The oil market is a great example. A tight supply situation was exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Prior to...

Mar

Geopolitics and Markets

March 13, 2022Geopolitics

Geopolitical events, especially wars, bring incredible destruction to those directly involved, and unfortunately, the impact will be felt for many years or decades. For global investment markets, though, the empirical evidence suggests that the impact may be short-lived. The investment bank, Mizuho, has published a look back at the larger military events since WWII with...

Feb

Inflation and Energy Prices

February 18, 2022Energy, Inflation

Inflation is on everyone’s mind and energy pricing has been a significant contributor. We have been discussing our concern that inflation has taken on a more structural ‘feel’ versus being transitory from the pandemic re-opening process. Supporting this argument is the impact from an aggressive move to renewable energy as demonstrated by Germany. The graphic...

A Monthly View into (Au)our Thinking

Newsletters

March 4, 2020

February Market Update

What is the headline risk? It is somewhat obvious, but the move of COVID-19 outside of China has shown that it has a higher probability of being a pandemic than it did before. The research we have reviewed shows that it is 20 times worse than the flu and can be transmitted much easier (not...

Joseph HoslerInsights0

January 13, 2020

Leverage – 4th Quarter 2019 Commentary

“It looks just a little more mathematical and regular than it is; its exactitude is obvious, but its inexactitude is hidden; its wildness lies in wait.” — G.K. Chesterton The Quarter in Review What a way to end the year! Global markets experienced a robust finish to 2019, with all but the so-called safe assets...

Joseph HoslerInsights0

December 2, 2019

Increasing Fragility

Increasing Fragility “Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty.” -Nissim Nicholas Taleb Well-intentioned plans can bring unintended consequences. The world’s major central banks have been adding stimulus to the global financial system, hoping to lessen economic volatility and minimize...

Joseph HoslerInsights0

October 21, 2019

FOMO versus FOAL

“The investor of today does not profit from yesterday’s growth.” —Warren Buffett The Quarter in Review Compared with previous quarters, the third quarter exhibited considerably more volatility with little appreciation. Most investment markets are showing signs of exhaustion due to continued uncertainty about trade wars, the negative interest rates in most developed countries,...

Joseph HoslerInsights0

September 21, 2019

Is the Age of Illusion Coming to an End?

Two weeks ago, Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan, said, “So, we have taken liquidity out of certain products. And it won’t hurt you very much in good times. Watch out when times get bad and people are getting stressed a little bit.” He was referring to changes in banking regulations after the 2008...

Joseph HoslerInsights0

August 28, 2019

The Sound of Money Dying

The Sound of Money Dying Wealth can be created and destroyed. Wealth is created when the investment of time, money, and energy arrives at an endpoint where the profit obtained is greater than the investment made. A simple example: you give your child ten dollars, allowing her to purchase supplies to open a lemonade stand....

Joseph HoslerInsights0

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