Emerging Problems “I think we can’t learn clear lessons from history. What we can learn is to watch out for dangerous possibilities.” – Margaret MacMillan At Auour, we analyze many independent factors to assess greed and fear and the inherent risk in the global markets. We believe the tools we have honed give us a...Read More

Some may think of us as bubble detectors. We choose to see ourselves, instead, as risk managers. They might be different sides of the same coin: We look across the global markets to gauge to what degree they are being moved by greed or fear, with the aim of removing client assets from the market...Read More

Last Friday, we hosted Colin Ireland, Senior Research Strategist of State Street Global Advisors, to discuss his observations of the volatility experienced by global markets at the beginning of February. [download id=”2881″]Read More

The last week has been a very quick reversal of a nearly 14-month upswing in the global markets. Yesterday, in particular, was a wake-up call that markets are not always tame and conducive to making money. We offer below some answers to questions we have received and hope that they help. We continue to monitor...Read More

A year ago, we wrote that all we wanted for Christmas was a bull market.  Thank you, Santa!  We thought we had been good but never thought we were that good. The 4th quarter continued the trend that existed all year with markets ending on a strong note.  For the first time since 2012, international...Read More

This is a phrase we heard a lot on our last visit to London. Though repeated as the subway doors open, it brings other ideas to us. Specifically, the gap between the expectations of some investors and what turns out to be the reality. All bubbles eventually “pop” (or at least deflate). Among other issues...Read More

We like games, but not all games. Some make us tense such as the Hasbro game named Operation. As a child growing up in a warm and nurturing environment, hearing the BUZZ as you touched the side not only scared you, but risked driving you to tears. We believed we could have killed someone if...Read More

The Quarter in Review The quote used in our 1st quarter report was “It is best to rise from life as from a banquet, neither thirsty nor drunken.”  We have been investing in accordance with that quote and maintaining a near fully invested stance yet conscious of the growing optimism witnessed in the world markets. ...Read More

We are strong believers in Peter Lynch’s quote, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves.” Because fearmongering market pundits profess that a correction is always near, we, therefore, continue to rely on Lynch’s statement. There is no doubt that...Read More

We are ones to look both ways even when crossing a one-way street.  It is ingrained in us to watch for the unexpected. We’re believers in the saying, “It’s the punch you do not see that knocks you out.” Although we stand in a near fully invested stance at the time of this writing, we...Read More